Create Scenarios Based on the Bayesian Network Model

In this lesson, we delve into the creation and analysis of improvement scenarios using Bayesian network queries. In our example from the last project, this critical knowledge allows us to visualize and understand how an organization can advance its project management maturity and the potential implications of such progress.

Let's walk through various scenarios, demonstrating how an increase in maturity levels across different practices can significantly influence project outcomes. More specifically, we'll be focusing on the impact these maturity levels have on the probabilities of project overcosts. This analysis will arm us with the tools necessary to develop effective improvement strategies tailored to our specific requirements.

The query for selected nodes

We commence our exploration by evaluating the "Overcost" node derived from the most influential nodes, namely Maturity_F, Maturity_G, and Maturity_H. Our journey leads us through a series of potential improvement scenarios, each representing a shift in maturity levels from 1 to 5.

The idea behind the scenarios is the exploration of "What happens if..." cases. These scenarios provide a glimpse into the possible future, allowing us to estimate the probability of projects' overcosts under different circumstances. This insight can play a crucial role in decision-making processes, offering alternatives if the current situation doesn't meet the requirements.

To start with the scenario analysis, in the next exercise, please query Level 5, only the most influential nodes: