Tackling the Paper Sheet-Break Challenge

In this lesson, we’ll explore the paper sheet-break problem as a practical application of the predictive methods we’ll discuss, demonstrating their potential to solve real-world rare event problems.

What’s the paper sheet-break problem?

A paper sheet-break problem in paper manufacturing is taken from Ranjan et al. 2018 as a working example in this course. The methods developed in the upcoming sections will be applied to a sheet-break dataset.

The sheet-break working example is described and used for developing a perspective. The formulation and developed methods apply to other rare event problems as well.

Problem motivation

Paper sheet break at paper mills is a critical problem. On average, the mill witnesses more than one sheet break every day. The average is even higher for fragile papers, such as paper tissues and towels.

Paper manufacturing is a continuous process. These sheet breaks are unwanted and costly hiccups in production. Each sheet break can cause downtime of an hour or longer. As mentioned in the previous lesson, this downtime causes the loss of millions of dollars at a plant and billions across the industry. Even a slight reduction in these breaks would lead to significant savings.

More importantly, fixing a sheet break often requires an operator to enter the paper machine. These are large machines with some hazardous sections that threaten operators’ health. Preventing sheet breaks via predictive systems can improve operators’ work conditions and make paper production more sustainable.