Definitions
Let's learn what megatrends are and what factors are involved in setting the megatrends.
Blackrock definition
Blackrock defines megatrends as “structural shifts that are longer-term in nature and have irreversible consequences for the world around us.” If you visualize tech history as a series of S curves, as we have previously discussed, you can easily identify these megatrends after the fact. Our task is to identify and act upon megatrends while we are still in the middle of their evolution.
Population percentages
The first and easiest feature to notice is that megatrends are measured on the order of magnitude of population percentages. Smaller projects may use absolute numbers of downloads, signups or active users, their monthly or annual percentage growth, or some other vanity metric. Most startups’ projections of total addressable markets (TAM) are complete pie in the sky, but it starts being real when strangers also start talking about adoption in terms of percentage TAM capture.
The momentum of population capture
The momentum of population capture is important. If you see the adoption go from 1% to 3% to 5% to 7% to 8%, it isn’t the end of things, but the trend is obviously in danger of ...