The Dangers of False Confidence
Explore the dangers of false confidence caused by seeking excessive precision over accuracy. This lesson helps you understand the distinction between being approximately correct and precisely wrong, emphasizing the value of 'good enough' information. Learn to make better decisions by avoiding common pitfalls like misplaced trust in false precision, data overload, and confirmation bias, helping you develop more realistic confidence in your engineering career.
Accuracy vs. precision
A close cognate of seeking “the best” is being impressed by more precision instead of accuracy. Having more precision gives you more confidence but doesn’t actually make you righter. Only accuracy measures how right you are.
Remember the difference:
The seductive lure of precision can come in several forms, including decimal places, high-frequency updates, one-axis comparisons of complex things, the majority consensus, the highly credentialed expert, etc.
Choose wisely between accuracy and precision
Every time you see:
- Financial news media quoting stock price changes down to two decimal places (caring more about