The Dangers of False Confidence
Let's learn the difference between accuracy and precision and the dangers of false confidence in our decision-making.
Accuracy vs. precision
A close cognate of seeking “the best” is being impressed by more precision instead of accuracy. Having more precision gives you more confidence but doesn’t actually make you righter. Only accuracy measures how right you are.
Remember the difference:
The seductive lure of precision can come in several forms, including decimal places, high-frequency updates, one-axis comparisons of complex things, the majority consensus, the highly credentialed expert, etc.
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